Market Giants Speak:2025’s Biggest Financial Debate

Thomas Friedman:

We are living in the most consequential financial moment since the fall of the Berlin Wall—and this time, it’s not just political borders that are shifting.

The markets are no longer governed solely by central banks, fundamentals, or even traditional geopolitics. They are now being shaped by invisible forces: algorithms trading in microseconds, quantum computers threatening the very code our systems rely on, retail swarms coordinating on apps, and a dollar whose supremacy is being quietly challenged from Shanghai to São Paulo.

In 2025, the stock market isn’t just a barometer of business sentiment—it’s a mirror reflecting the deepest tensions in our world: centralization vs decentralization, trust vs transparency, inflation vs innovation.

That’s why we brought together the voices that move markets. These aren’t just investors. They’re system thinkers, historians of money, pioneers of code, and rebels with calculators. Each of them brings a distinct lens to the future of finance.

Over the next seven conversations, you’ll hear urgent debates on artificial intelligence, the decline of the dollar, ESG accountability, the retail rebellion, the passive investing paradox, the quantum security threat, and the new investment map in a deglobalizing world.

This isn’t about predicting the next 5% move in the S&P. It’s about asking: What happens when the foundations shift?

Buckle in. This isn’t just a financial series. It’s a blueprint for understanding power in a world where markets no longer play by the old rules.

 (Note: This is an imaginary conversation, a creative exploration of an idea, and not a real speech or event.)

Topic 1: AI-Driven Trading vs. Human Intuition

Moderator: Lex Fridman
Speakers:

• Jim Simons

• Cathie Wood

• Paul Tudor Jones

• Elon Musk

• Cliff Asness

Lex Fridman opens the session:

"We’re entering a strange and fascinating era—one where trading algorithms can simulate human emotion, but not the wisdom that comes from years of scar tissue. Let's ask: In a world of high-frequency models, quant dominance, and AI-assisted sentiment analysis, does human intuition still matter in the stock market?"

Lex:

AI models are outperforming in many areas. But when it comes to markets—filled with chaos and black swans—can human intuition still outperform algorithmic strategies in key moments?

Paul Tudor Jones:

“Absolutely. Algorithms thrive in normal conditions, but they freeze up when the music stops. Human intuition isn’t just about data—it’s about sensing when something doesn’t smell right. That gut feeling during 1987 or even 2020—that’s not programmable. Not yet.”

Cathie Wood:

“I’d argue it’s about synergy. Human intuition defines what the AI should even look for. At ARK, we use machine learning to identify exponential trends, but it’s our team’s human insight that decides which ones are investable before they show up in the models.”

Elon Musk:

“Humans still have one unfair advantage: we can simulate possible futures better than current AI can. The market isn’t rational—it’s layered with narratives. A human can sense shifts in collective psychology before the data even catches it.”

Jim Simons:

“You know, our models at Renaissance ignore the news, ignore intuition, ignore predictions. And they work. But I’ll admit—when something truly novel hits, like COVID, even we had drawdowns. So yes, intuition still plays a role... especially in crisis.”

Cliff Asness:

“I respect intuition, but it’s mostly unreliable. People anchor, overreact, panic. AI at least sticks to the rules. That said, there are edge cases—especially during regime shifts—where intuition sees the break before the model adjusts. But it’s rare.”

Lex:

Interesting contrast. Let me take it further—as AI evolves, how should traders adapt their skill sets to stay relevant in an increasingly automated world?

Cathie Wood:

“We need to become more interdisciplinary. A trader today should understand genomics, robotics, AI, and economics. It’s no longer enough to read balance sheets—you need to see how tech transforms industries before the models catch up.”

Jim Simons:

“Hire better mathematicians. Seriously. If you want an edge, understand the math behind randomness, noise, and time series. And understand where models break—that’s your edge.”

Elon Musk:

“Be curious about first principles. If you’re just reacting to price, you’re dead. Learn to deconstruct systems: Why does this tech matter? Why does this policy shift mean more than the market realizes? That's where traders will still win.”

Paul Tudor Jones:

“Emotional regulation will become more important than technical skill. When everyone’s using similar AI tools, your edge is in your mental game—when to act, when to wait, when to pull out. That’s not teachable to a machine... yet.”

Cliff Asness:

“Become a better question-asker. Learn how to frame the right hypothesis before handing it to an AI. Otherwise, garbage in, garbage out. Traders need to evolve into hypothesis generators, not reaction junkies.”

Lex:

Let’s close with this—what risks do we face if we rely too much on AI in trading? Could we trigger a systemic collapse?

Elon Musk:

“Yes. And it’ll happen faster than we can react. Imagine every fund, every retail trader, every pension trusting black-box AI with no understanding of underlying logic. A single misalignment could cause an avalanche. It’s not just probable—it’s inevitable without governance.”

Jim Simons:

“The real risk isn’t the AI—it’s the correlation. If everyone uses similar models trained on the same data, they’ll all sell at once in a panic. That’s how flash crashes happen. The illusion of safety amplifies the danger.”

Cathie Wood:

“There’s also a creativity gap. AI isn’t good at anticipating paradigm shifts. If we rely only on AI, we risk missing the next Tesla, the next Amazon. Innovation happens in the blind spots of models.”

Paul Tudor Jones:

“Markets have soul. They move with fear, greed, and joy. AI doesn’t feel—yet. So when panic hits, humans will still be the last line of defense… or the last to fall. Either way, we better be ready.”

Cliff Asness:

“It’s about feedback loops. If AI trades against AI and starts feeding off itself, we may end up in a hall of mirrors. That’s not trading—that’s systemic fragility. We need heterogeneity in strategies, including good old-fashioned human judgment.”

Lex closes:

“Powerful insights. Maybe the future of trading isn’t AI vs. humans—but AI with humans who know when to question it. Thank you all.”

Topic 2: The Fall of the Dollar? Global Markets in a Post-Dollar World

Moderator: Fareed Zakaria
Panelists:

• George Soros

• Ray Dalio

• Zhu Ning

• Nouriel Roubini

• Kristalina Georgieva

Fareed Zakaria opens the session:

"The dollar has long been the cornerstone of global finance—but rising debt, geopolitical realignment, and digital alternatives are challenging that dominance. The question we face in 2025 is not just whether the dollar will fall, but what might rise in its place. Let’s begin.”

Fareed:

In light of de-dollarization efforts by BRICS and others, is the decline of the U.S. dollar’s dominance truly inevitable—or just exaggerated noise?

Ray Dalio:

“It’s not inevitable, but it's probable. Empires decline when debt becomes unsustainable and internal conflict rises. We're seeing both in the U.S. Meanwhile, countries like China are building alternative systems—not just in currency but in trade and finance infrastructure.”

George Soros:

“The dollar won’t collapse overnight, but its supremacy is eroding. Sanctions weaponized it. Now others want out. That distrust is accelerating systemic change. But no currency, including the yuan, is ready to take the mantle fully—yet.”

Zhu Ning:

“From China’s view, the dollar's fall is not about dominance—it’s about resilience. Diversification is the goal. We’re not trying to dethrone the dollar, but we are preparing to function without it. That shift alone changes the balance of power.”

Nouriel Roubini:

“Let’s be clear. The dollar’s strength is rooted in trust and military might. But trust is fading. The U.S. debt trajectory is alarming. If confidence erodes, capital will flee—even from Treasury bonds. That’s when the game changes fast.”

Kristalina Georgieva:

“The dollar remains the world’s anchor—for now. But we see more countries settling in yuan, euro, or local currencies. The IMF is encouraging currency flexibility. A multipolar world is coming. That doesn’t mean collapse. It means transition.”

Fareed:

So what replaces the dollar—or fills the vacuum? Are we heading toward a multipolar reserve system, or will digital currencies reshape the game entirely?

George Soros:

“A multipolar system is more likely than a single successor. We might see a basket of regional currencies or even stablecoins backed by gold or sovereign reserves. But trust is key—and most digital currencies still lack that.”

Zhu Ning:

“China is investing in digital yuan not as a crypto alternative, but as a state-backed programmable currency. That’s the future: digital tools with state legitimacy. But for it to be global, it must also be transparent—and that’s still evolving.”

Ray Dalio:

“Gold will rise again. And Bitcoin may have a role. But more important is the principle of ‘storehold of wealth.’ Smart capital will flow into diversified assets: commodities, real estate, and currencies of fiscally responsible nations.”

Kristalina Georgieva:

“The IMF is exploring digital SDRs—Special Drawing Rights—as an international reserve asset. If we can digitize that basket with broad cooperation, it could stabilize the global system without needing to choose one dominant nation.”

Nouriel Roubini:

“Bitcoin is too volatile. CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) are too nationalized. We might need a synthetic reserve currency managed by international institutions. Otherwise, financial fragmentation will bring instability.”

Fareed:

If the dollar weakens significantly in the next decade, how should investors and nations reposition their portfolios, reserves, or policies to prepare for a post-dollar world?

Ray Dalio:

“Think in systems. Diversify across countries, asset classes, and even governance models. Own real assets. Avoid debt-heavy currencies. The riskiest position now is being all-in on dollar-based systems.”

Kristalina Georgieva:

“Nations must build currency resilience. That means developing local capital markets and trade mechanisms that don’t depend on one central hub. For investors, agility and regional understanding will become core skills.”

Zhu Ning:

“China’s Belt and Road now includes local currency settlement systems. That’s not just economics—it’s geopolitical hedging. Investors need to follow infrastructure, not just charts. The future is physical, digital, and diversified.”

George Soros:

“I’d caution against betting too heavily on collapse. The U.S. has immense innovative capacity. But hedge it. Bet on volatility. The shifts ahead are not linear—they’ll come in shocks. Be ready to pivot fast.”

Nouriel Roubini:

“Hold real assets, commodities, and inflation-protected securities. Expect inflation spikes and debt crises. And for policymakers: improve fiscal discipline or risk capital flight. For investors: protect your downside first.”

Fareed closes:

“The dollar’s future won’t be written in headlines—it’ll be written in shifts: slow at first, then sudden. Thank you all for helping us see what may lie ahead.”

Topic 3: ESG Investing – Real Impact or Financial Theater?

Moderator: Mariana Mazzucato
Panelists:

• Larry Fink

• Charlie Munger (archived views & AI reconstruction)

• Vivek Ramaswamy

• Rebecca Henderson

• Mark Carney

Mariana Mazzucato opens the session:

“ESG—Environmental, Social, and Governance—was meant to align capital with conscience. Yet in 2025, it sits at a crossroads. Critics say it’s a smokescreen. Advocates say it’s a moral and financial necessity. Let’s begin by asking:”

Mariana:

Is ESG investing truly reshaping corporate behavior—or is it more about optics than outcomes?

Larry Fink:

“We’re seeing real shifts. Companies now disclose emissions, diversity, and board structure because capital demands it. That’s not optics—it’s market pressure. BlackRock doesn’t impose values. We reflect the evolving expectations of millions of investors.”

Vivek Ramaswamy:

“That’s the problem. ESG distorts capitalism by injecting politics into investing. It looks like reform, but it’s really virtue signaling. It lets corporations hide inefficiency behind glossy ESG reports. It doesn’t improve outcomes—it obscures accountability.”

Rebecca Henderson:

“I disagree. ESG is still young, yes, but it’s changing internal metrics and long-term planning. Firms now factor in climate risk, supply chain fairness, and employee wellbeing. That’s structural—not cosmetic.”

Charlie Munger (AI):

“Most of it’s BS. Real value comes from great products, honest managers, and wide moats—not trendy ESG labels. We didn’t need ESG to run a good business. Focus on fundamentals and common sense, not fads.”

Mark Carney:

“As a former central banker, I assure you: climate risk is financial risk. ESG investing is a necessary evolution. Without it, capital misprices long-term threats like stranded assets or social instability. That’s not theater—it’s math.”

Mariana:

Let’s push this: Should governments regulate ESG standards to ensure consistency—or would that politicize investing even more?

Rebecca Henderson:

“Yes, regulation is critical. We need baseline standards—like GAAP for sustainability. Without that, every company defines ESG on its own terms. Transparency doesn’t kill innovation. It builds trust.”

Vivek Ramaswamy:

“That’s precisely what I oppose. Regulation turns ESG into a political weapon. Today it’s carbon scores—tomorrow, it’s compelled speech. Let the market choose what matters, not the state.”

Larry Fink:

“There’s a middle path. Let independent bodies define ESG frameworks, much like accounting standards. We shouldn’t politicize values, but we also can’t have chaos. Investors deserve reliable, comparable data.”

Charlie Munger (AI):

“Bureaucrats regulating morality? That’s a terrible idea. Let companies make money. The good ones will naturally act responsibly—because it pays in the long run. We didn’t need ESG police back in our day.”

Mark Carney:

“We regulate what matters—banks, food, air. Why not the climate risk embedded in portfolios? Without clear standards, greenwashing thrives. Responsible capitalism requires structure, not slogans.”

Mariana:

So finally—How should investors approach ESG in 2025? As a real opportunity? A bubble? Or something to watch with caution?

Larry Fink:

“It’s an opportunity—but you must go beyond labels. Look for substance: How does a company treat workers, manage risk, and prepare for climate disruption? ESG done right isn’t idealism—it’s smart investing.”

Charlie Munger (AI):

“Treat it like a trend. It might stick around, but don’t confuse it with the core game. Own great businesses. Ignore the fluff.”

Mark Carney:

“If you ignore ESG, you’re blind to transition risk. If you embrace it blindly, you risk underperformance. The key is to integrate it thoughtfully—use it as a lens, not a religion.”

Rebecca Henderson:

“Invest in firms that align purpose with performance. Long-term value isn’t just financial—it’s social and environmental. Companies that understand this are already winning.”

Vivek Ramaswamy:

“Investors should double down on first principles. Buy companies that create value for shareholders. If ESG happens to align, fine. But don’t treat it as a moral compass—it’s not.”

Mariana closes:

“The ESG debate forces us to ask what markets are for. Are they simply engines of profit, or stewards of our shared future? Thank you all for bringing the fire to this complex question.”

Topic 4: Retail Army 2.0 – Can Meme Stocks Strike Again?

Moderator: Joe Rogan
Panelists:

• Roaring Kitty (Keith Gill)

• Chamath Palihapitiya

• Jim Cramer

• Meltem Demirors

• Mark Cuban

Joe Rogan opens the session:

“So here’s the deal—millions of average Joes and Janes joined forces on Reddit, TikTok, and Twitter and flipped Wall Street on its head. Now it’s 2025. Some say the retail revolution is over. Others say it's just evolving. Let's dig in.”

Joe:

Is the meme stock era dead, or are retail investors just getting smarter and more organized for a second wave?

Roaring Kitty (Keith Gill):

“Dead? Not even close. It’s evolved. Retail traders are now using AI, APIs, and Discord bots. The tools got better, the research deeper. It’s no longer just hype—it’s digital swarm intelligence. And it’s learning fast.”

Chamath Palihapitiya:

“I agree. Retail isn’t dying—it’s decentralizing. The new generation doesn’t trust institutions. They trust the hive. And that hive is building capital fast. The next meme wave won’t be stocks—it’ll be protocols, tokens, maybe even private markets.”

Jim Cramer:

“Look, I respect the passion, but you’ve got to be careful. A lot of these meme rallies end in disaster. When the tide goes out, you see who’s swimming naked. I’m not saying retail’s finished—but the novelty has worn off. Fundamentals still matter.”

Meltem Demirors:

“Retail is mutating. The line between meme and movement is blurry. Gamestop wasn’t just about profit—it was protest. Today, meme trading is cultural warfare, financial rebellion, and yes, still sometimes profitable.”

Mark Cuban:

“Retail will strike again—but smarter. They’ve built muscle memory. They now crowdsource better data, spot BS faster, and coordinate with lightning speed. The tools are outpacing Wall Street in some cases.”

Joe:

Alright then—what role will tech like AI, social media, and tokenization play in this next phase of retail power?

Chamath Palihapitiya:

“Tech is the amplifier. AI will allow retail to digest massive datasets in seconds. Combine that with Web3 tokenization and social DAOs, and you’ve got self-directed hedge funds forming on Reddit. That’s the real revolution.”

Jim Cramer:

“AI cuts both ways. It helps the little guy, sure. But it also feeds hype at warp speed. If everyone’s trading based on AI-curated memes, you could have a volatility apocalypse. We need digital literacy, not just digital speed.”

Meltem Demirors:

“Tokenization will be huge. Imagine meme stocks as NFTs with utility. Communities owning slices of culture and capital. We're going to see hybrid financial products—memes embedded with smart contracts.”

Mark Cuban:

“I’m excited about tokenized equities. It removes middlemen. Retail will own fractional shares instantly, on-chain, 24/7. That’s empowerment. That’s liquidity. That’s the future.”

Roaring Kitty (Keith Gill):

“We’re already seeing AI bots that track short interest, tweet volume, and sentiment in real-time. Retail now has dashboards that rival Bloomberg Terminals. This is no longer David vs Goliath—it’s David with a cybernetic arm.”

Joe:

Wild stuff. Let’s bring it home—what should retail investors watch out for to avoid getting wrecked again in hype cycles?

Jim Cramer:

“Emotional control. You’ve got to have discipline. FOMO will kill you faster than any hedge fund. If you don’t understand the company, stay out. If it doubles overnight, don’t assume it’ll triple tomorrow.”

Mark Cuban:

“Understand risk vs reward. Never invest more than you can afford to lose. And don’t fall in love with your stocks—they won’t love you back. Ride the wave, but know when to get off the board.”

Chamath Palihapitiya:

“Be a builder, not just a bettor. Join communities that educate, not just speculate. Ask: Does this asset give you ownership, control, or access? If not, you’re not investing—you’re gambling.”

Meltem Demirors:

“Use tools, not vibes. There’s no excuse anymore. You’ve got AI, backtesting, sentiment trackers—use them. And diversify your sources. Don’t just follow one loud voice, even if they’re your hero.”

Roaring Kitty (Keith Gill):

“Remember what started it: conviction and due diligence. The first wave worked because people actually read 10-Ks, followed options flows, and connected dots. Go back to the roots—passion backed by homework.”

Joe closes:

“So the meme stock movement isn’t over—it’s evolving. The battlefield's digital, the players smarter, the risks still real. But the underdog energy? Still alive and kicking. Thanks, everyone.”

Topic 5: The End of Passive Investing?

Moderator: Barry Ritholtz
Panelists:

• Warren Buffett

• Michael Burry

• Jack Bogle (AI legacy voice)

• Annie Duke

• David Einhorn

Barry Ritholtz opens the session:

“For decades, passive investing was the smartest move for the average investor—low cost, broad exposure, steady returns. But in 2025, cracks are showing. Market concentration. Mispriced risk. Systemic fragility. Are we nearing the end of the golden age of passive?”

Barry:

Passive funds now control more than half of U.S. equity assets. Has this created distortions in the market—and if so, are they dangerous?

Michael Burry:

“Absolutely. We’re watching the same kind of blind capital flow that caused the housing bubble. Passive investing doesn’t consider price—it just buys. That’s not investing. That’s momentum masquerading as wisdom. It’s setting us up for a collapse.”

Warren Buffett:

“I understand the concern, but I still believe in passive for most people. You can’t beat the market consistently without skill or luck. Indexing is simple, cheap, and effective. But yes—too much passive can lead to inefficiencies.”

Annie Duke:

“The behavioral side matters here. Passive investing encourages overconfidence in 'doing nothing.' But markets evolve. If too many players are on autopilot, it becomes a system vulnerable to shocks no one’s watching for.”

Jack Bogle (AI voice):

“This is not a bubble—it’s a revolution. Index funds are a force for good, minimizing costs and maximizing returns over time. But I always warned: if indexing dominates the market, price discovery suffers. That’s the paradox of success.”

David Einhorn:

“Passive investing has distorted valuation. Capital flows to mega caps regardless of performance. As an active manager, I’m finding value in unloved corners. The opportunity is in what passive funds ignore.”

Barry:

With AI, alt-data, and real-time sentiment tracking growing fast, is it time for active investing to make a comeback—or is passive still the smartest play for most investors?

Warren Buffett:

“If you’re not willing to study businesses deeply, stick with passive. It beats 90% of active funds over time. But if you love the game—and you're disciplined—there are chances to outperform.”

Annie Duke:

“I think it’s both/and. We’re entering an era of ‘selective active.’ AI can surface ideas faster, but human judgment is still needed to evaluate uncertainty. Smart investors will blend both styles depending on goals.”

Michael Burry:

“Active must return. The sheer number of companies now mispriced due to passive flows is staggering. We’re in a candy store. But the window won’t last forever—once everyone wakes up, the edge disappears.”

David Einhorn:

“There’s always a cycle. We’re heading back into one where skill will matter again. Especially in small caps, emerging markets, and sectors where the passive funds haven’t flooded in yet.”

Jack Bogle (AI):

“Active is not dead—but most active managers are. The few who succeed do so at great cost and volatility. For the average investor, passive remains the safest path through an uncertain future.”

Barry:

Let’s wrap with this—what does a healthy future look like for the balance between active and passive? What should investors aim for?

Annie Duke:

“A healthy portfolio isn’t rigid. Use passive as your foundation, and active as your satellite. Be flexible. Adjust based on risk tolerance, goals, and your ability to evaluate information rationally.”

Warren Buffett:

“For 95% of people: keep buying low-cost index funds. For the rest: know what you own, and why. The balance lies in self-awareness.”

Michael Burry:

“We need regulation that limits concentration in index funds—or at least transparency. The system isn’t built to handle passive dominance forever. Balance starts with acknowledging the risk.”

David Einhorn:

“Expect change. If you assume what worked the past 20 years will work forever, you’ll be punished. Passive isn’t bad—but it’s not bulletproof either.”

Jack Bogle (AI):

“Let common sense guide you. Costs matter. Discipline matters. And humility matters. Passive or active, it’s not about timing the market—it’s about time in the market.”

Barry closes:

“The future isn’t passive or active—it’s adaptive. Thank you all for helping us rethink what smart investing could look like in the years ahead.”

Topic 6: The Quantum Computing Threat to Market Security

Moderator: Walter Isaacson
Panelists:

• Scott Aaronson

• David Shaw

• Naval Ravikant

• Abigail Johnson

• Vitalik Buterin

Walter Isaacson opens the session:

“We’re standing at the edge of a technological leap—quantum computing. It promises unimaginable speed but threatens to shatter today’s encryption, trading systems, and financial stability. The markets are unprepared. So let’s ask: What happens when quantum goes live?”

Walter:

If quantum computing advances faster than expected, what are the most immediate threats to global financial markets and investor trust?

Scott Aaronson:

“The clearest threat is to cryptographic security. Most financial infrastructure—banking, trading, even blockchain—relies on RSA or elliptic curve encryption. Quantum algorithms like Shor’s could crack those in hours. Once that’s possible, everything breaks unless we've transitioned.”

Abigail Johnson:

“For firms like Fidelity, trust is everything. If people fear their transactions or balances can be manipulated by rogue actors with quantum power, the psychological damage alone could spark market runs. Quantum risk isn’t just technical—it’s behavioral.”

Vitalik Buterin:

“Blockchains are particularly vulnerable. While Ethereum is preparing for post-quantum signatures, most existing wallets and contracts are not. A sudden quantum leap could let attackers rewrite history or drain assets. The entire Web3 space would face existential risk.”

David Shaw:

“Institutional systems—like clearinghouses, high-frequency trading platforms, and SWIFT—depend on timing and trust. If even one actor gains an asymmetric advantage with quantum decryption, they could front-run, spoof, or crash markets before regulators even know what hit them.”

Naval Ravikant:

“It’s not just hacking—it’s asymmetry. One quantum-enabled state or firm could dominate markets invisibly, like having tomorrow’s newspaper. This isn’t science fiction—it’s economic warfare.”

Walter:

That’s chilling. So, what should governments, financial institutions, and technologists be doing now to prepare for this quantum threat?

Abigail Johnson:

“The first step is migrating to post-quantum cryptography. NIST has already selected candidate algorithms, but the financial world is slow to adapt. We need timelines, testing frameworks, and above all—urgency.”

Scott Aaronson:

“Exactly. Quantum-safe algorithms exist, but they’re not plug-and-play. There’s resistance due to cost, complexity, and lack of understanding. We need joint task forces between academia, government, and finance. Delay is the real danger.”

Naval Ravikant:

“We also need to fund open-source quantum security tools. Relying on black-box enterprise solutions or closed-door alliances is risky. Decentralized resilience will matter more than centralized control.”

David Shaw:

“And don’t forget risk modeling. Firms should already be stress-testing what a post-quantum breach would do to their portfolios, their settlement flows, and their counterparties. This isn’t just IT’s job—it’s a board-level issue.”

Vitalik Buterin:

“Ethereum and other blockchains should offer dual-signature or quantum-upgradable contracts now—not after an attack. The crypto world has the flexibility to lead this shift, but only if we act before quantum hits, not after.”

Walter:

Let’s wrap with this: How does quantum computing change the philosophy of markets and finance itself—beyond just security?

David Shaw:

“It changes the edge. If today’s edge is speed and data, tomorrow’s edge is physics and math. Markets will reward those who understand not just economies, but computation at its most fundamental level.”

Naval Ravikant:

“It brings us back to first principles. If technology lets you simulate the future with insane precision, then markets must evolve. What’s scarce now is not data—but meaning, creativity, and trust. Quantum forces us to rethink intelligence itself.”

Scott Aaronson:

“Markets have always balanced chaos with structure. Quantum computing injects uncertainty into the very structure—because suddenly, the rules change. It reminds us that even in finance, physics has the final word.”

Vitalik Buterin:

“It forces decentralization. If quantum can crack any centralized vault, the answer is to spread risk. Web3, DAOs, and distributed validation become not just innovative—but essential.”

Abigail Johnson:

“Quantum will separate the prepared from the obsolete. Finance has long been about trust. In the quantum era, trust will depend on code, transparency, and speed of adaptation. Those who lead will survive. The rest will be history.”

Walter closes:

“Quantum computing might shake the very code we write markets on. Whether it’s threat or breakthrough depends entirely on how quickly we respond. Thank you all for illuminating this invisible frontier.”

Topic 7: Deglobalization and the New Investment Map

Moderator: Thomas Friedman
Panelists:

• Stanley Druckenmiller

• Niall Ferguson

• Mary Callahan Erdoes

• Ruchir Sharma

• Anne-Marie Slaughter

Thomas Friedman opens the session:

“Globalization shaped the last 30 years of growth, trade, and capital flows. But in 2025, the world is splintering—reshoring factories, decoupling from China, building economic walls. Is this a necessary reset—or the unraveling of progress?”

Thomas:

As global supply chains fragment, what’s really driving deglobalization—and is it temporary or a lasting realignment?

Niall Ferguson:

“This is history reasserting itself. The illusion of frictionless globalization died with COVID and Ukraine. National security, cultural identity, and economic self-sufficiency are taking center stage. We're entering Cold War 2.0—economically speaking.”

Mary Callahan Erdoes:

“Clients are already repositioning. Deglobalization isn’t just a political story—it’s a risk management decision. You want factories closer, data local, and energy reliable. That reshapes capital flows and asset prices.”

Ruchir Sharma:

“The shift is real—but uneven. Yes, trade is localizing. But we’re also seeing new ‘regional globalization’—India trading more with Southeast Asia, Latin America building internal markets. So it’s not the end—it’s a reconfiguration.”

Stanley Druckenmiller:

“Deglobalization is inflationary. Labor costs rise, supply tightens, competition falls. That has major implications for central banks, currencies, and equity valuations. Markets aren’t priced for that yet—but they will be.”

Anne-Marie Slaughter:

“It’s also about values. Democracies want to trade with democracies. We’re seeing alliances based on trust, not just efficiency. That creates new blocs—but also new exclusions. The world is sorting itself by ideology.”

Thomas:

Given this realignment, which regions or sectors do you believe will benefit—or lose—most from this new investment map?

Stanley Druckenmiller:

“The U.S. could win big—if it gets its act together. With capital reshoring, defense spending up, and tech leadership intact, America’s industrial renaissance is real. But debt remains a ticking bomb.”

Ruchir Sharma:

“Emerging markets that embrace reform—India, Vietnam, Mexico—are set to gain. They offer labor, stability, and proximity. China? Still important, but the premium is gone. It’s no longer the automatic factory of the world.”

Mary Callahan Erdoes:

“Energy is the hinge. Countries with stable, green, or strategic energy assets—like Canada, Brazil, and parts of Africa—are becoming central to portfolios. Forget just GDP. Investors are looking at resilience.”

Anne-Marie Slaughter:

“Education, semiconductors, rare earths—these are new national priorities. Regions that invest in people and self-sufficiency will win. But the social contract matters too—dislocation without safety nets breeds backlash.”

Niall Ferguson:

“Europe may lose. It's caught between giants, demographically aging, and energy dependent. Meanwhile, nations with youth, resources, and strategic neutrality will lead the next global wave—not the old powers.”

Thomas:

Last question—what mindset should investors and leaders adopt to navigate this more fragmented, multipolar economic world?

Mary Callahan Erdoes:

“Agility. You can’t assume global beta anymore. You need to understand local risk, politics, and regulation. It’s a return to active investing—by country, by currency, by culture.”

Anne-Marie Slaughter:

“Think systemically. Deglobalization isn’t just trade—it affects migration, trust, even climate cooperation. Investors must widen their lens. You’re not just betting on companies—you’re betting on societies.”

Ruchir Sharma:

“Be contrarian. Everyone's scared of chaos. But within it are opportunities. Political change, new alliances, and capital mispricing. The best returns will come where few are looking.”

Stanley Druckenmiller:

“Respect the cycle. We’re shifting from deflation to inflation, from abundance to scarcity. That’s not temporary—it’s structural. Asset allocation must evolve with the world—not the world we wish still existed.”

Niall Ferguson:

“Don’t bet on reversion. The world won’t go back to 2015. The new game is resilience, redundancy, and regional power. Invest in durability—countries, systems, and values that can absorb shocks.”

Thomas closes:

“The world map investors used for decades is being redrawn—by forces far beyond markets. Knowing where to plant your flag next will define the winners of this new age. Thank you all.”

Final Thoughts

By Ray Dalio:

If there’s one thing history has taught us, it’s that empires, economies, and financial systems all move in cycles. Nothing stays on top forever—not the dollar, not Silicon Valley, not even the dominance of passive investing.

What we’re witnessing in 2025 is a convergence of transitions. Technology is accelerating faster than regulation. Globalization is breaking into regional blocs. And the financial system is becoming more complex, opaque, and emotionally charged.

But with each transition comes opportunity—for those who stay humble, informed, and diversified.

I often say the biggest mistake investors make is believing what happened recently will continue. The next decade won’t look like the last. What worked in the era of cheap capital and globalization won’t work when inflation, fragmentation, and systemic risks return.

What matters now is resilience: in portfolios, in policy, and in personal thinking.

This series has shown us that while no one has a crystal ball, the conversation itself is a compass. If we can keep asking better questions, challenging consensus, and thinking in probabilities—not certainties—we’ll navigate this new era wisely.

In the end, markets are driven by people: their fears, hopes, and beliefs. So stay curious. Stay cautious. And above all—stay adaptive.

Short Bios:

Jim Simons – Mathematician and founder of Renaissance Technologies, widely regarded as the most successful quantitative trader in history.

Cathie Wood – CEO of ARK Invest, known for her high-conviction investments in disruptive technologies like AI, genomics, and blockchain.

Paul Tudor Jones – Billionaire hedge fund manager and founder of Tudor Investment Corporation, famous for macro trading and predicting market crashes.

Elon Musk – Entrepreneur and CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, influential voice on innovation, AI ethics, and financial disruption.

Cliff Asness – Co-founder of AQR Capital Management, expert in quantitative investing and behavioral finance.

George Soros – Founder of the Quantum Fund, renowned for bold currency speculation and deep analysis of global macroeconomic trends.

Ray Dalio – Founder of Bridgewater Associates and author of "Principles," known for his macroeconomic insights and all-weather portfolio approach.

Zhu Ning – Chinese economist and professor specializing in financial markets, systemic risk, and monetary policy in emerging economies.

Nouriel Roubini – Economist and NYU professor known for forecasting the 2008 financial crisis and writing on global financial stability.

Kristalina Georgieva – Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, with a focus on economic development and financial coordination.

Larry Fink – Chairman and CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, and a key proponent of ESG investing.

Charlie Munger – Former Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, celebrated for his partnership with Warren Buffett and plainspoken investing wisdom.

Vivek Ramaswamy – Entrepreneur and political commentator, outspoken critic of ESG investing and advocate for shareholder capitalism.

Rebecca Henderson – Harvard Business School professor and author focused on purpose-driven capitalism and sustainability in business.

Mark Carney – Former Governor of the Bank of England and UN climate envoy, advocate for climate finance and green investment standards.

Roaring Kitty (Keith Gill) – Influential retail investor who sparked the GameStop short squeeze, symbolizing grassroots investor activism.

Chamath Palihapitiya – Venture capitalist and former Facebook executive, known for championing retail investing and SPAC-led innovation.

Jim Cramer – Host of CNBC’s "Mad Money" and long-time financial commentator with a background in hedge fund management.

Meltem Demirors – Chief Strategy Officer at CoinShares and expert in cryptocurrency markets and decentralized finance.

Mark Cuban – Entrepreneur and owner of the Dallas Mavericks, vocal investor in tech, finance, and blockchain.

Warren Buffett – Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, regarded as one of the most successful long-term value investors in history.

Michael Burry – Hedge fund manager who predicted and profited from the 2008 housing crisis, featured in "The Big Short."

Jack Bogle – Late founder of Vanguard and creator of the index fund, known for promoting low-cost, long-term passive investing.

Annie Duke – Former professional poker player turned decision strategist, author on risk, probability, and behavioral economics.

David Einhorn – Founder of Greenlight Capital, value investor known for contrarian positions and skepticism of passive market dominance.

Scott Aaronson – Leading quantum computing theorist and professor at the University of Texas, specializing in computational complexity.

David Shaw – Founder of D. E. Shaw & Co., pioneer in quantitative finance and former computational biochemist.

Naval Ravikant – Angel investor and philosopher-entrepreneur, known for thoughts on startups, wealth creation, and decentralized systems.

Abigail Johnson – Chairman and CEO of Fidelity Investments, advocate for financial innovation and cryptocurrency integration.

Vitalik Buterin – Co-founder of Ethereum, one of the most influential figures in the development of blockchain and decentralized finance.

Stanley Druckenmiller – Former lead portfolio manager for George Soros, known for macro trading and long-term economic forecasting.

Niall Ferguson – Historian and author focused on empire, currency, and the evolution of economic systems.

Mary Callahan Erdoes – CEO of JPMorgan Asset & Wealth Management, with deep experience in risk management and institutional strategy.

Ruchir Sharma – Global investor and author known for his analysis of emerging markets and the shifting balance of economic power.

Anne-Marie Slaughter – CEO of New America and former U.S. State Department official, focused on foreign policy and global governance.

Thomas Friedman – Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and author of "The World is Flat," known for explaining globalization and technological change.

Lex Fridman – MIT researcher and podcast host, known for deep conversations on AI, consciousness, and technology’s future.

Fareed Zakaria – CNN host and global affairs analyst, with expertise in geopolitics, economics, and international relations.

Barry Ritholtz – Financial analyst, author, and wealth manager, known for his commentary on markets, behavior, and policy.

Walter Isaacson – Biographer of innovators like Steve Jobs and Einstein, and former editor of Time magazine, focused on science and leadership.