Hans Rosling & Experts Debunk Myths on Global Progress

I am thrilled to bring you an inspiring imaginary conversation that will change the way you see the world. Today, we’re challenging the common belief that the world is divided into extremes—rich vs. poor, developed vs. developing. Hans Rosling, co-author of Factfulness, will lead us in exploring how data shows a much more hopeful reality: most people live somewhere in between.

Joining Hans is Steven Pinker, a cognitive psychologist and author, who will discuss why our brains are wired to focus on negativity and how we can embrace a more positive outlook.

We also have Malala Yousafzai, Nobel laureate and activist, sharing her personal journey and insights on education and equality, reminding us that change is possible even in the most difficult circumstances.

Next, Ban Ki-moon, former UN Secretary-General, will talk about global cooperation and the strides made in sustainable development.

Bill Gates, philanthropist and tech visionary, will highlight how innovation and health advancements are transforming the world.

We’re joined by Yuval Noah Harari, historian and author, offering his long-term perspective on humanity’s evolution and future.

Jacinda Ardern, former Prime Minister of New Zealand, will speak on compassionate leadership and navigating crises with empathy.

Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate, will explore how cognitive biases shape our decisions and how we can think more rationally.

Nate Silver, statistician and founder of FiveThirtyEight, will explain the power of data in understanding trends and making accurate predictions.

Finally, Esther Duflo, economist and Nobel laureate, will discuss the innovative ways we’re addressing global poverty through research and policy.

This all-star lineup promises a thought-provoking conversation about how the world is improving and how we can use data, leadership, and innovation to create an even brighter future. 

Let’s get started!

Challenging Misconceptions: The World Isn’t Divided into Extremes

Nick Sasaki (Moderator): Welcome, everyone. Today we’re discussing an important theme from Factfulness: the idea that the world isn’t divided into extremes. Hans, can you explain why this “gap instinct” is so misleading?

Hans Rosling: Absolutely, Nick. People often see the world in terms of two groups—rich vs. poor, or developed vs. developing—but this view is outdated. The reality is that most people live in the middle. When we look at global data, we see improvements in health, education, and income that show a massive middle class emerging. By understanding this, we can appreciate the real progress that’s being made and stop assuming that only a small elite is thriving.

Steven Pinker: That’s a crucial point, Hans. In my research for Enlightenment Now, I found similar patterns. We naturally focus on extreme cases, like extreme poverty or extreme wealth, but this distorts the overall picture. The fact is, more people than ever are living better lives. But our brain’s negativity bias pushes us to focus on negative news, making it hard to see the real improvements happening around the world.

Malala Yousafzai: Exactly, Steven. When I talk to girls around the world, I see that more of them have access to education, even in places where it once seemed impossible. The idea that some regions are stuck in permanent poverty or ignorance doesn’t hold up anymore. While there are still challenges, many countries are making remarkable progress in areas like gender equality and education access.

Ban Ki-moon: I’ve witnessed this shift firsthand during my time at the United Nations. In the past few decades, the world has made significant strides in reducing extreme poverty, improving health outcomes, and expanding education. When we started the Millennium Development Goals, many people doubted we could make such progress, but we did. Hans is right—this “gap instinct” limits our ability to collaborate globally, because we tend to see problems as unsolvable.

Hans Rosling: Exactly, Ban. And this misconception stops people from recognizing the progress we've made. For instance, the global rate of extreme poverty has been halved in the last few decades, but if you ask the average person, they’d probably say poverty is increasing. When we challenge these misconceptions with facts, we can focus on what matters—continuing to reduce inequality and create opportunities for everyone, rather than acting out of fear.

Steven Pinker: That’s true, Hans. Progress isn’t always visible because it happens gradually and cumulatively. What you mentioned about extreme poverty being reduced—it’s the result of decades of work in policy, technology, and international cooperation. But when we’re stuck in this mindset of extremes, we miss out on seeing how far we’ve come.

Malala Yousafzai: And when people understand that progress is possible, they feel empowered to contribute to change. In places like Pakistan, where I’m from, seeing the progress in education and gender equality gives people hope. They realize they can be part of the solution, rather than waiting for help from outside.

Ban Ki-moon: Absolutely, Malala. The interconnectedness of our world today shows that we are all in this together. Global challenges like climate change or pandemics don’t respect borders, and this interconnected reality means that working together is the only way forward. If we can overcome this false belief that the world is divided into unchangeable extremes, we’ll be better equipped to solve these issues.

Hans Rosling: Well said. Breaking free from the “gap instinct” allows us to see the world as it truly is: complex and constantly evolving. Recognizing this can lead to better decisions and more effective global cooperation.

Nick Sasaki: It’s clear that when we challenge these misconceptions, we open the door to seeing the world more accurately and with a sense of optimism about what can be achieved. Thank you, Hans, Steven, Malala, and Ban, for sharing your insights on this important topic.

Overcoming Fear and Negativity: A Better World Than We Perceive

Nick Sasaki: Now let’s dive into another powerful theme from Factfulness: the tendency to focus on fear and negativity, which leads us to believe that the world is worse off than it actually is. Hans, what drives this negativity instinct?

Hans Rosling: The negativity instinct is deeply ingrained in us, Nick. We tend to focus on bad news because our brains are wired to be on the lookout for danger. This was useful for survival thousands of years ago, but today it distorts our view of the world. We’re bombarded with negative news, even though the data shows we’ve made huge strides in areas like life expectancy, poverty reduction, and safety. The media often emphasizes what's going wrong, which creates a skewed perception of reality.

Bill Gates: Hans is spot on. I’ve seen this myself in global health work. People often underestimate how much progress we’ve made in reducing diseases like malaria or polio. They think these problems are still rampant, when in reality, we’ve seen incredible reductions in disease prevalence. But because bad news sells, the positive changes don’t get the attention they deserve. If we rely only on headlines, we end up with a very negative worldview that doesn’t reflect the actual progress happening.

Yuval Noah Harari: That’s an important point, Bill. In Sapiens, I talk about how our ancient instincts still shape our thinking today. We’re constantly drawn to threats and dangers, and the modern media amplifies that tendency. But when we look at the broader picture, we see that humanity has overcome many of the major threats that used to plague us—such as war, famine, and disease. It doesn’t mean the world is perfect, but it’s definitely much better than people often realize.

Jacinda Ardern: I agree. As a leader, I’ve seen how focusing on fear can paralyze decision-making. When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, there was a lot of fear about how bad things could get. But instead of letting that fear dictate our actions, we chose to focus on solutions. By staying calm and using data-driven strategies, we were able to minimize the impact of the virus in New Zealand. Fear doesn’t help us solve problems—it just makes them feel insurmountable.

Hans Rosling: That’s exactly right, Jacinda. The fear instinct often pushes people to act impulsively or shut down in the face of challenges. But when we take a step back and look at the data, we see that many things are improving. Global life expectancy has risen to over 70 years, extreme poverty has been halved, and more children are going to school than ever before. These are monumental achievements, but they’re often overshadowed by fear-driven narratives.

Bill Gates: And that’s why it’s so important to combat this negativity instinct with facts. In our work with the Gates Foundation, we’ve seen how data can change perspectives. Once people understand that their efforts are making a difference, they’re more motivated to keep pushing for progress. The key is to shift the narrative from fear to optimism, without ignoring the real challenges we still face.

Yuval Noah Harari: Exactly. We need to strike a balance between recognizing the remaining problems and acknowledging the incredible progress we’ve made. The story of humanity is one of continuous improvement, but fear can cloud that story. By focusing too much on what’s wrong, we lose sight of our capacity to solve those problems.

Jacinda Ardern: And when leaders communicate with an optimistic, solution-focused approach, it helps build trust. People want to feel that progress is possible, and when they see leaders tackling challenges with confidence and clarity, they’re more likely to support those efforts. The negativity instinct can be overcome, but it requires both facts and compassionate leadership.

Hans Rosling: Absolutely. The world is far better than we think, and it’s our responsibility to spread that message. If we focus on what’s going well and what still needs improvement, we can create a more balanced and hopeful view of the future.

Nick Sasaki: This conversation shows us that while fear and negativity may dominate our perception, the truth is much more hopeful. With facts, optimism, and strategic leadership, we can continue to make the world a better place. Thank you, Hans, Bill, Yuval, and Jacinda, for these insights.

The Danger of Simplistic Thinking: Trends Are Not Always Straightforward

Nick Sasaki: Let’s move to our next topic from Factfulness: the tendency to assume trends will continue in a straight line and the danger of simplistic thinking. Hans, can you explain how this straight-line instinct can lead us to misunderstand global trends?

Hans Rosling: The straight-line instinct is a common mental shortcut, Nick. People assume that trends will continue exactly as they are, without considering that factors often change over time. For example, many people think that the world’s population will keep growing indefinitely, but in reality, birth rates are falling, and population growth is expected to level off. This linear thinking oversimplifies complex issues and leads to poor decision-making because we don’t take the evolving nature of these trends into account.

Daniel Kahneman: I completely agree, Hans. Our brains are wired to look for simple patterns and make predictions based on them, but the world is rarely that simple. In Thinking, Fast and Slow, I explore how cognitive biases like the straight-line instinct influence our judgments. We tend to focus on short-term trends and miss the deeper, underlying forces that might change those trends over time. This is particularly problematic when we’re dealing with complex systems, whether it’s the economy, climate change, or public health.

Nate Silver: Exactly, Daniel. As a statistician, I’ve seen firsthand how people misinterpret data when they expect trends to continue in a straight line. Whether it’s predicting election outcomes or understanding climate projections, the assumption that “things will keep going this way” often leads to overconfidence and errors. What’s important is to recognize that trends can bend, reverse, or plateau based on new information or external factors. This is where probabilistic thinking comes in—we need to assess the likelihood of different outcomes, not just assume one trajectory.

Esther Duflo: Yes, and this kind of thinking is especially dangerous in social policy. When we design programs to reduce poverty or improve education, for example, we often assume that a successful intervention will continue to produce results in a linear fashion. But in reality, human behavior is complex, and many interventions see diminishing returns over time. Randomized control trials in my research have shown that what works in one setting might not work as well in another. We need to be flexible and adapt our strategies as trends evolve.

Hans Rosling: That’s a critical point, Esther. People often ask me, “Why hasn’t population growth stopped if birth rates are declining?” The truth is, population momentum continues for some time even after birth rates drop, due to the large number of young people entering reproductive age. But this doesn’t mean the population will keep growing forever—it’s just not as straightforward as people think. We need to challenge our assumptions and embrace the complexity of global systems.

Daniel Kahneman: And when we oversimplify, we ignore critical signals that could alter the trend. For example, in economics, people often make predictions based on short-term growth without considering the long-term impacts of innovation, policy changes, or global shifts. If we treat these trends as fixed, we set ourselves up for surprises. The key is to remain open to new data and be willing to adjust our expectations as circumstances change.

Nate Silver: Absolutely. And to add to that, we also need to be cautious of cherry-picking data to support a narrative. When people are too invested in a particular outcome, they often focus on data points that fit their expectations and ignore those that don’t. This can reinforce the belief in straight-line trends even when the broader picture is more nuanced. Being open to all the data, not just what confirms our biases, is crucial for understanding complex trends.

Esther Duflo: That’s so true, Nate. In my work, we’ve found that even well-intentioned policymakers can fall into this trap. They expect a successful program to keep producing results without considering how local conditions might shift or how human behavior might change over time. The danger is in being too rigid. Flexibility and a willingness to adapt based on evolving evidence are key to tackling complex social issues.

Hans Rosling: Exactly. The world is complex, and trends rarely follow a straight path. We must learn to embrace this complexity, avoid oversimplifications, and be open to change. Only then can we make better decisions and address the challenges ahead with clarity.

Nick Sasaki: Thank you, Hans, Daniel, Nate, and Esther. This discussion highlights the importance of breaking free from simplistic, straight-line thinking. By embracing complexity and remaining flexible, we can better navigate the challenges of our ever-evolving world.

The Power of Proportionality and Context: Big Numbers in Perspective

Nick Sasaki: Now, let’s talk about the importance of understanding numbers in context. Hans, one of the key ideas in Factfulness is that people often misinterpret the size of problems because they don’t consider proportionality. Can you explain how this “size instinct” distorts our thinking?

Hans Rosling: Absolutely, Nick. The size instinct is when we see a large number and become alarmed, but we don’t stop to put it in perspective. For example, when people hear that millions of children die each year from preventable diseases, they rightfully think it’s tragic. But what they often miss is that child mortality has actually fallen dramatically over the past few decades. Without proportionality, big numbers can seem overwhelming, when in reality, they represent significant progress compared to the past.

Angela Duckworth: That’s such an important point, Hans. In psychology, we talk about how humans are wired to focus on threats, and this includes large numbers that seem scary. But numbers without context can be misleading. For instance, people might hear that a large number of students drop out of school each year and assume the education system is failing, when the real story is that dropout rates have been declining steadily. It’s all about seeing the bigger picture and understanding that while problems still exist, they may not be as dire as they appear at first glance.

Paul Romer: I agree, Angela. In economics, the size instinct can really cloud people’s judgment, especially when it comes to public policy. Let’s take national debt as an example. Many people hear trillions of dollars and panic, thinking the economy is in immediate danger. But without considering the size of the economy relative to the debt, that number can be misleading. What matters is the proportion—how the debt compares to the country’s GDP. Proportionality helps us see that sometimes a large number isn’t as alarming when viewed in context.

Richard Dawkins: Exactly, Paul. In the realm of science, we see this all the time. People hear a statistic about the number of species going extinct, and while it’s a serious issue, without knowing the baseline, they might assume the problem is much larger than it actually is. This doesn’t mean we should downplay real concerns, but by providing context, we can approach the problem more rationally and avoid unnecessary panic.

Hans Rosling: That’s right, Richard. In Factfulness, I emphasize that it’s not about ignoring big numbers but understanding them within their proper context. Take global population growth, for example. People panic when they hear the population is growing by millions each year, but if you look at the long-term trend, fertility rates are dropping, and growth will stabilize. Proportionality allows us to see that while the numbers are large, they don’t spell disaster.

Angela Duckworth: And it’s not just about calming fears. Understanding proportionality can help people stay motivated. When you realize that small, incremental improvements add up over time, it gives you hope. You start to see that progress is possible, even when the problem seems huge. That’s true in education, social change, and personal growth.

Paul Romer: Absolutely. In economic development, small percentage increases in growth can lead to massive improvements in living standards over time. But if people only focus on the big problems and overlook the small victories, they might feel like nothing is changing. When we provide context, it shows how even modest gains can have a major impact over the long term.

Richard Dawkins: Yes, and in science, it’s often the small discoveries that accumulate over time to create breakthroughs. People expect big, dramatic changes, but most progress is incremental. Understanding that these small steps lead to significant outcomes is crucial in managing expectations and fostering appreciation for gradual progress.

Hans Rosling: Exactly. By putting numbers into proportion and looking at long-term trends, we gain a more accurate view of the world. Big numbers without context can cause unnecessary fear and mislead people into thinking things are worse than they are. Proportionality helps us see that many large problems are being tackled successfully.

Nick Sasaki: Thank you, Hans, Angela, Paul, and Richard. This discussion has highlighted how understanding proportionality and context can change the way we interpret big numbers and help us make more rational decisions. By looking at the whole picture, we can better appreciate the progress being made and approach challenges with a clearer, more balanced perspective.

Embracing Gradual Progress: The Importance of a Long-Term Perspective

Nick Sasaki: Finally, let’s explore the idea of gradual progress and the importance of having a long-term perspective. Hans, in Factfulness, you emphasize that improvements happen slowly over time and that immediate results shouldn’t always be expected. Can you share why this is so crucial?

Hans Rosling: Absolutely, Nick. Many people expect quick fixes to global problems, but the truth is, real progress takes time. The “urgency instinct” makes us think that we need to solve everything immediately, but that mindset can lead to frustration when we don’t see instant results. In reality, most of the significant improvements in areas like poverty, health, and education have taken decades. We need to have a long-term perspective and recognize that small, consistent changes can lead to transformative outcomes over time.

Jeffrey Sachs: That’s a key point, Hans. In my work on sustainable development, we’ve seen that long-term investments in education, infrastructure, and healthcare pay off, but only after years or even decades. It’s easy to lose patience when you don’t see immediate returns, but these are foundational changes that are building a better future. When people look at the world through a short-term lens, they miss the slow but steady progress that’s actually happening.

Bill McKibben: I agree, Jeffrey. Take the issue of climate change, for example. While we face urgent challenges, the solutions require long-term thinking. Transitioning to renewable energy, reforesting land, and changing our consumption patterns won’t happen overnight. But that doesn’t mean progress isn’t being made. What matters is that we keep moving in the right direction, even if the results are gradual. A long-term perspective helps us stay focused on the bigger picture instead of getting discouraged by the pace of change.

Peter Diamandis: That’s exactly right. Innovation, too, is a process of gradual accumulation. Breakthroughs often come after years of incremental improvements. For example, when people look at the tech industry, they tend to focus on big moments like the launch of the iPhone, but that’s just the visible tip of an iceberg. The technologies that make innovations possible are the result of decades of research, failures, and small steps forward. Patience and persistence are key when it comes to achieving meaningful change.

Hans Rosling: Yes, and the same goes for global health. The eradication of diseases like smallpox or the reduction in child mortality didn’t happen overnight. It took consistent global cooperation, funding, and new technologies to slowly bring these numbers down. People often underestimate how much progress we’ve made because it happens incrementally. But when you step back and look at the long-term trends, you see just how far we’ve come.

Jeffrey Sachs: That’s why policies need to reflect this understanding as well. Governments and organizations often want to show quick results to satisfy political or public demands, but short-term fixes can undermine the progress that’s happening behind the scenes. What we need is sustained, long-term investment in areas like clean energy, education, and health to see lasting change.

Bill McKibben: And the challenge is communicating this effectively. People are understandably impatient, especially when they’re facing urgent crises. But if we can help them see that slow progress is still progress, we can maintain momentum. Climate action, for instance, is a marathon, not a sprint. As long as we keep taking steps in the right direction, we can build a more sustainable world.

Peter Diamandis: That’s why I always emphasize the power of exponential growth. Small steps in the beginning might seem insignificant, but they can lead to massive change over time. Whether it’s in technology, sustainability, or human development, it’s about sticking with it and trusting the process. When we view progress as a long-term effort, we can achieve far more than we might expect in the short term.

Hans Rosling: Exactly. The urgency instinct can make us feel like the world isn’t changing fast enough, but when we zoom out and look at the long-term data, we see that massive progress has been made in areas like poverty, health, and global development. It’s important to stay focused on the end goal and not get discouraged by the pace of change.

Nick Sasaki: Thank you, Hans, Jeffrey, Bill, and Peter. This conversation has shown that embracing gradual progress and adopting a long-term perspective is essential to solving the world’s most pressing problems. When we stay patient and focus on steady improvements, we can achieve extraordinary results over time.

Short Bios:

Hans Rosling was a Swedish physician, professor of international health, and a public speaker known for his work in global health and his ability to make data come alive. He co-authored Factfulness and was a co-founder of the Gapminder Foundation, which promotes a fact-based worldview. Rosling’s work focused on combating ignorance about the world’s progress in health, poverty reduction, and development.

Steven Pinker is a cognitive psychologist and author, known for his work on language, the mind, and human nature. He is the author of Enlightenment Now and The Better Angels of Our Nature, where he argues that, despite current challenges, humanity has made tremendous progress in reducing violence and improving overall well-being. Pinker is a professor at Harvard University and a leading voice on the power of reason and science in shaping human progress.

Malala Yousafzai is an education activist and the youngest Nobel Peace Prize laureate. She became a global advocate for girls’ education after surviving an assassination attempt by the Taliban in 2012. Malala has since founded the Malala Fund, which works to ensure girls around the world can access 12 years of free, safe, and quality education. Her courageous story has inspired millions, and she continues to champion education as a powerful tool for global equality.

Ban Ki-moon is a South Korean diplomat who served as the eighth Secretary-General of the United Nations from 2007 to 2016. During his tenure, he focused on sustainable development, climate change, and global peacebuilding. Ban played a key role in advancing the Millennium Development Goals and the Paris Climate Agreement. He remains an influential voice on international diplomacy and global cooperation.

Bill Gates is a business magnate, philanthropist, and co-founder of Microsoft. Through the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, he has focused on global health, poverty alleviation, and education, investing in solutions to reduce disease and improve the quality of life in the world’s poorest regions. Gates is also known for his advocacy on climate change and renewable energy innovation.

Yuval Noah Harari is an Israeli historian and author, best known for his books Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, Homo Deus, and 21 Lessons for the 21st Century. Harari's work explores the impact of history, technology, and artificial intelligence on human society, often reflecting on how humans have evolved and where the future might take us.

Jacinda Ardern is a New Zealand politician who served as the 40th Prime Minister of New Zealand from 2017 to 2023. She earned international recognition for her compassionate leadership, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic and in the aftermath of the Christchurch mosque shootings. Ardern is known for her focus on progressive policies, global cooperation, and empathetic governance.

Daniel Kahneman is a psychologist and Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences. His work on decision-making and cognitive biases, particularly in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, has had a profound impact on economics, psychology, and public policy. Kahneman’s research on human irrationality has influenced how people think about risk, judgment, and choice.

Nate Silver is a statistician and founder of the website FiveThirtyEight, which focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports. Silver gained widespread attention for his accurate predictions of U.S. elections using data-driven models. He is the author of The Signal and the Noise, a book on prediction and the use of statistical models in various fields.

Esther Duflo is a French-American economist and professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). She won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for her work in development economics, specifically for using randomized control trials to address poverty and improve public policies. Duflo co-authored Poor Economics and is widely recognized for her innovative approaches to solving global poverty.

Angela Duckworth is a psychologist and author of Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance. Her research focuses on the role of character traits like perseverance and self-control in achieving success. Duckworth is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and the founder of the Character Lab, a nonprofit that advances the science and practice of character development.

Paul Romer is an economist and Nobel laureate, known for his work on endogenous growth theory, which examines how technological innovation and knowledge drive economic growth. Romer has served as the Chief Economist of the World Bank and is a professor at New York University. His research has influenced how economists and policymakers think about innovation and development.

Richard Dawkins is an evolutionary biologist and author, best known for his books The Selfish Gene and The God Delusion. He has been a prominent advocate for science and atheism, arguing for evidence-based thinking and rational inquiry. Dawkins' work has contributed significantly to public understanding of evolution, genetics, and the scientific method.

Bill McKibben is an environmentalist and author, known for his advocacy on climate change and environmental sustainability. He is the founder of 350.org, an international environmental organization addressing the climate crisis. McKibben has written several influential books, including The End of Nature, one of the first to sound the alarm on global warming.

Peter Diamandis is an entrepreneur, futurist, and founder of the XPRIZE Foundation, which promotes innovation in solving global challenges. He is also the co-author of Abundance and Bold, books that explore how exponential technologies can solve humanity’s biggest problems. Diamandis focuses on the potential of technological innovation to create a future of abundance and progress.